23 bold predictions for the 2023 Astros season
Houston is looking to become the 21st century's first back-to-back champion. The Houston Astros are one day away from the start of the 2023 season as they look to become baseball's first back-to-back champion this century. With Opening Day on the immediate horizon, there remain a smattering of question marks for the American League favorites. There are 23 bold predictions for the season, including a strong start to 2023 with early slated matchups against the White Sox, Tigers and Pirates. Jose Altuve could return when Carlos Correa comes to town in early May, and Tucker Tucker could earn the largest contract in Astros' history by surpassing Altuve's $151 million in 2018.
Published : one year ago by Michael Shapiro, michael shapiro, Chron in Sports
We're now just one day away from the start of the 2023 season as the Houston Astros look to become baseball's first back-to-back champion this century.
Dusty Baker's squad is largely intact from last year's sprint through the postseason, though as Opening Day approaches, there remain a smattering of question marks for the American League favorites. Will Houston's rotation hold up without Justin Verlander? Can Yordan Alvarez stay on the field? Can Jose Altuve bolster his Hall of Fame candidacy? The Astros' dominance in the AL West across the last half decade has been metronomic. That doesn't take away from the intrigue entering 2023.
With Opening Day on the immediate horizon, let's put on our prognostication hat for what is always a fun Houston sports exercise. It's time for 23 predictions for the 2023 Astros season, which we'll run through in chronological order. Perhaps this will look quite prescient in November. If it doesn't, you know where to find me. Alright, time to dive in below:
Expect a raucous atmosphere on Thursday as the Astros receive their World Series rings in front of the Minute Maid Park crowd, but such a celebration doesn't guarantee anything upon first pitch. White Sox starter Dylan Cease is a Cy Young candidate in 2023, and Chicago sports a sneakily-potent lineup despite a disappointing 2023. Don't be shocked if first baseman Andrew Vaughn smacks a dinger into the Crawford Boxes or lofts one over the short porch in right field.
Nearly the entire sport appears to have moved on from their frustration regarding the Astros' sign-stealing scandal, though there are a handful of exceptions league-wide. Arguably the most notable name? Former Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly, who famously started a bit of a tussle with Carlos Correa and the Astros in 2020. Kelly is now with the White Sox, and he's certainly on the feisty side for a middle reliever. We won't predict any sort of brawl, but it's possible Kelly's antics cause a bit of a stir over the weekend.
Yainer Diaz earns multiple starts in the first homestand
Diaz mashed his way to a roster spot in Spring Training as he beat out Korey Lee for the backup catcher role, and Diaz won't be relegated to duty solely behind the plate in 2023. He can play left field and first base in a pinch, and he's a worthwhile option for Baker at designated hitter. In Houston's opening seven-game homestand, Diaz should become a known commodity to casual Astros fans.
I'm bullish on Javier's overall season prospects (more on that below) and there's even more reason to be confident in a strong start to 2023 with early slated matchups against the White Sox, Tigers and Pirates. Javier could very well rack up 30-plus strikeouts in the trio of outings, staking an early claim as an AL Cy Young contender.
Jose Altuve returns when Carlos Correa comes to town
Houston received a serious note of bad news earlier this month as Jose Altuve underwent thumb surgery, keeping him out of the lineup for at least eight weeks. That would place Altuve on tap to return in early May as the soonest possible date, though I expect more ramp-up time before returning due to the nature of his injury. Let's circle May 29 as a more likely return day for Altuve, who could return to the field as Carlos Correa and the Twins make an appearance in Houston.
A stellar showing in the World Baseball Classic raised Pressly's national profile to a degree, though he still isn't necessarily mentioned as perhaps the AL's best end-of-game option. Still, Pressly should post another sub-3.00 ERA campaign with elite strikeout rates in 2023, placing him in line for a trip to Seattle for the All-Star Game in July.
Astros general manager Dana Brown didn't shy away from discussing the potential for contract extensions with a number of players this offseason, though a deal with Cristian Javier was the only one to come to fruition. That could change this season. Tucker is certainly the most expensive extension candidate, though he also stands as perhaps the most sensible option at just 26 years old. Tucker could very well earn the largest contract in Astros' history by season's end, surpassing Jose Altuve's $151 million deal signed in 2018. If Tucker continues to produce like he has in recent years, $200 million is seriously in play.
Speaking of Tucker, a 30-homer, 30-steal season would certainly qualify as the kind of production that could see a potential extension above $200 million. And such barriers are more than within play. Tucker tallied 30 homers in each of the last two seasons. He swiped 25 bags last year, and MLB now has new rules to further incentive base stealing. We should see at least a few players cross the 30-30 barrier this season. Tucker has a good chance to be one of them.
Abreu offered a word of caution at his introductory press conference in December, noting he doesn't expect to be the 30-homer bat he was in 2017, 2019 and 2021. I don't quite believe him. The 2020 AL MVP still sits near the top of exit velocity leaderboards, and he should feast with the Crawford Boxes just 315 feet away. $60 million over three years isn't exactly the most prudent investment in a 36-year-old first baseman. Abreu will still provide quality return in 2023.
McCullers remains plenty effective when healthy as evidenced by an ERA+ 42 percent above league average across the last two seasons. But the healthy caveat is a problem that's rearing its head again. McCullers will start the season on the Injured List due to forearm soreness, and there's no guarantee this is an issue that subsides by the end of April. Houston's real aim should be to have a healthy McCullers for the playoffs. Baker and Co. may take extreme caution with the eight-year veteran in the regular season, even if McCullers avoids a 60-day IL stint to begin the year.
As we highlighted above, Javier is a sneaky Cy Young candidate in 2023, one who should get out to quite the fast start with a trio of middling-to-poor opponents. And frankly, this is a simple math game at play. Javier fanned 194 batters last season in fewer than 150 innings. As the Astros eye more length from Javier in 2023, anything under 200 Ks may be an underestimate.
Javier took part in both of Houston's combined no hitters last year, a feat he could very well repeat in 2023. And even if it's not Javier leading the way, perhaps no team in baseball is set up better for a combined no-hitter from the Astros. My prediction for this year: Framber Valdez goes six hitless on a sleepy August night in Miami, followed by three perfect innings from Houston's stellar bullpen.
The Tennessee product was Houston's first round draft pick in 2022, and he could become a fan favorite in the Bayou City as early as the middle of this decade. Gilbert has the potential to be an elite defender in center field, and he possesses more pop at the plate than his 5-foot-8 frame suggests. Gilbert already sports solid awareness of the strike zone. He plays with an intensity matched by few players in college baseball last season. His first full professional season could be a standout one, bringing the Astros their next top-50 prospect.
Pressly's spot in the closer role makes him Houston's most important bullpen piece, though by Wins Above Replacement, Ryan Stanek was the team's top reliever in 2022 with a 2.2 WAR. Another non-closer should lead Houston's bullpen WAR leaderboard in 2023. Bryan Abreu struck out 19 batters in 12 scoreless innings in the 2022 playoffs, and he appears primed for a greater role in 2023.
Pitchers with Abreu's propensity for whiffing bats don't come around often. Expect Abreu to be heavily deployed by Baker, perhaps rising to over 60 innings and 2.5 WAR by season's end.
Hunter Brown does NOT contend for Rookie of the Year
Houston's current top prospect has elicited comparisons to Verlander, and Brown sports the high-90s fastball and wipeout slider necessary to be a strikeout-heavy starter at the big-league level. But it's hard to view Brown as anything but a polished product entering 2023. He still has command trouble as evidenced this spring, and while he could reach 10 wins, he could see his usage dampen in August and September as the Astros prepare for another playoff run. Given impressive position player rookies in Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson, New York's Anthony Volpe and Boston's Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas (my personal pick to click), it's hard to see Brown make a serious run at Rookie of the Year.
Shap makes over 3.5 trips to the Pluckers in center field
Now let's get to the serious stuff. Is the media dining at Minute Maid Park relatively tasty? Yes. Would my wallet be better served avoiding the outsized expense of modern ballpark food? Also yes. But I can't help myself. The Pluckers is too good. A chicken-strip basket and a seat along the first-base line is arguably the best Houston experience money can buy, and even given certain media privileges, the opportunity is too good to pass up. What is intended to be a couple of Pluckers pilgrimages will likely become a handful by August. Too much of a good thing can be dangerous. Too much Pluckers? Never heard of it.
The competition is catching up to the Astros in the AL West, though I don't quite buy this being the year Houston's run comes to an end. Oakland is a dumpster fire. The Angels and Rangers still sport depth problems despite offseason upgrades. There's a scenario where the young Mariners avenge last year's ALDS and topple the Astros, but I'll stick with the institutional excellence and give Houston the AL West nod for the sixth time in the last seven seasons.
We could very well end up with a similar situation as 2022 this year, in which the upstart Mariners are actually the best AL bet to dethrone Houston with superstar outfielder Julio Rodriguez and a young pitching staff on the rise (place a George Kirby Cy Young bet for some solid value). There are, of course, also the usual slate of challengers in the AL East, and the Guardians are building quite the impressive young core. Still, there isn't quite the comparable juggernaut to the Astros in the American League. Minute Maid Park may be on its way to hosting World Series games again this October and November.
Astros fall to NL team in World Series (...again)
This would be especially painful for the Astros as they look to further entrench themselves as a historic dynasty. Look toward the National League field, though, and such a scenario is more than possible. The Braves have perhaps baseball's best lineup. The Mets will look quite potent in October if both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are healthy. And while the Padres continue to set their sights on slaying the dragon up the freeway, San Diego should have higher sights than the NL West crown.
Houston against any NL contender would make for a titanic clash. Guaranteeing a World Series win over the Dodgers or any of the aforementioned trio is a fool's errand.
Baker's verve and love of the game remains quite strong as he approaches his 74th birthday, and his celebratory press conference after the 2022 season didn't exactly sound like a manager ready to hang it up. But even despite a legendary life in baseball, Baker isn't a singularly-minded individual. He's a nationwide socialite with a phone book of friends that includes the Obamas, Snoop Dogg and Martha Stewart, and while an October run will always be thrilling, the chase of Baker's first championship as a manager is no longer in play.
We in the media would mourn the loss of seeing Baker each day, a usual treat that includes some sort of story or notable quip. But don't weep for us. If Baker is ready for his next chapter after 2023, who are we to stop him?
Houston's managerial opening in the event of Baker's departure would immediately become one of the most highly-coveted jobs in the sport, with a potential laundry list of big-name candidates—hello, A.J. Hinch?—on Jim Crane's radar. Perhaps a nationwide search is unnecessary. Houston sports one of the more accomplished coaching staffs in the game, headlined by bench coach Joe Espada. The time is coming for Espada to be an MLB manager. The role could come in Houston.
Houston's third baseman finally looked completely healthy from a smattering of hand and wrist injuries in the 2022 playoffs, and what followed was a dominant 13-game stint in which Bregman hit a trio of home runs as he drove in 11 runs. We should see that version of Bregman again in 2023.
Bregman's walk-to-strikeout ratio (87 walks to 77 strikeouts in 2022) is a delightful blast from the past, and his pull-side power remains impressive. More importantly, Bregman is a tireless worker, one who works to seize every edge possible against a pitcher in a given day. Will we see Bregman cross an 1.000 OPS as he did in 2019's No. 2 MVP finish? Not quite. But 30 homers and a .900-plus OPS certainly is. Pair that with Bregman's stellar defense at third, and he could turn in a six-plus WAR season as he fights for MVP votes.
It's a bit easy to forget now, but Alvarez turned in an MVP-caliber season in 2022 that got overshadowed by Aaron Judge's historic home-run chase and the two-way sensation that is Shohei Ohtani. In case you forgot, here's a brief reminder. Alvarez swatted 37 home runs in 2022. He was one of two players to post a .300/.400/.600 slash line, and in the last 10 seasons, only Judge, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have recorded a better OPS+ than Alvarez's 187 mark. Alvarez is not only atop baseball's exit velocity leaderboards. He also finished in the top four percent among all players in walk rate in 2022.
Few hitters in recent memory are as prodigious as Alvarez. If he can avoid an IL stint, 50 home runs, eight WAR and the AL MVP are all in play.
Topics: Baseball, MLB, Houston Astros