‘Extremely active’ 2024 hurricane season ahead, researchers predict
It could be an “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season, according to a long-range forecast from researchers at Colorado State University. Researchers from Colorado State University have predicted an "extremely active" 2024 hurricane season, according to a long-range forecast from the University of California. The predictions, based on climate trends, predict that the Atlantic basin will see 23 named storms, 11 of which are hurricanes, five of which will be Category 3, 4, or 5. The researchers predict a "well above-average" chance for major hurricanes to make landfall in the continental U.S. and Caribbean. They also predict that named storms will be present in the Atlantic for 115 days of the season, which includes 45 days of hurricanes and 15 major hurricane days. The El Niño climate pattern is weakening, indicating a transition into a neutral pattern and then La Niña. Researchers warn that the initial forecast is likely to change as we get closer to hurricane season.
Published : 4 weeks ago by Rachel Tucker in Weather
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — It could be an “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season, according to a long-range forecast from researchers at Colorado State University.
CSU released its projections 58 days out from the first day of the season. Changing climate patterns are expected to usher in a more favorable environment for tropical activity than in 2023.
Using models based on decades of climate trends, CSU researchers predict the Atlantic basin will see 23 named storms, 11 of those being hurricanes. Five of the hurricanes will be Category 3, 4, or 5, otherwise known as major hurricanes. The average number of named storms from 1991 to 2020 was 14.4, according to CSU
Researchers projected a “well above-average” chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the continental U.S. and in the Caribbean.
Additionally, CSU predicts named storms will be present in the Atlantic for 115 days of the season, which includes 45 days of hurricanes and 15 major hurricane days.
Researchers urge everyone not to read too far into the initial forecast, as it is likely to change as we get closer to hurricane season. Last spring, CSU initially projected a below-average season and later updated the forecast to an above-average season.
The El Niño climate pattern is weakening, signaling a transition into a neutral pattern, and then La Niña. Despite being an above-average hurricane season, most tropical systems stayed well offshore of the Atlantic coast last year.
The weakening jet stream means less wind shear, creating a more favorable environment for storms to form this year. Higher ocean temperatures will help them intensify.
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are at record levels and are expected to remain well above average during hurricane season. Ocean temperatures are currently about two to three degrees above average in the Atlantic and one to two degrees above average in the Gulf of Mexico.
Local residents are urged to get prepared ahead of hurricane season by making an action plan with family, gathering essential supplies and making sure their homes are prepared for a potential storm.
Topics: Hurricanes